Well written Mr Peris but unsure if I agree with the conclusion that the ball is in the Russian court. As much as Putin may be concerned with the social and economic reverberations of the war, the military supremacy of the Russians would seem to trump other factors in determine the future of this conflict.
If Russia is in fact capable of continuing to increase its drone production to a scale total unmanageable for a Ukraine already on the back foot, the latter will have to be the one to make the next move in terms of drawing the conflict to a close. The fanaticism with which the Ukrainian political sphere views its struggle against the Russians paired with what would be an assuredly ‘loose-loose’ fate for the existing leadership will keep them fighting until a bitter end, while Russia can afford to bite the proverbial (and literal) bullet for now.
As you yourself say ‘Russians can afford to take the beating’ — but unlike a typical boxing match, one of the belligerents (the Russians) are only increasing their drone capabilities. As Mearshimer or some other realist said about a year ago, ‘you can’t win against someone you can’t say no to’. Especially in light of the disastrous inconsistency with which the United States has approached trade, Iran negotiations, Russian negotiations, et al over the past four months, my suspicion is that Russia won’t bat an eye until some combination of demoralization and disaffection within Ukraine results in capitulates to entertaining the idea of conceding occupied land.
As an aside, your point about veterans issues is very well put. Curiously enough from an American perspective, the most interesting episode of the war thus far was the Pregozhin revolt — Russians against Russians! In light of the kinetic war between ‘east and west’ which started the division between Russia and European powers, it would be unsurprising if bitterly ironic should things end in the same general way…
Yet another thought-provoking article from Alexander. You touched on what will surely become one of the most important and long-lasting impacts of this war, namely Ukraine’s demographic challenges. History tells us that “demographics are destiny” - a pessimistic prospect for both Ukraine’s ability to hold off Russian advances, and the possibility of a successful post-war rebuilding of social and economic institutions and structures. A very important factor to consider.
Well written Mr Peris but unsure if I agree with the conclusion that the ball is in the Russian court. As much as Putin may be concerned with the social and economic reverberations of the war, the military supremacy of the Russians would seem to trump other factors in determine the future of this conflict.
If Russia is in fact capable of continuing to increase its drone production to a scale total unmanageable for a Ukraine already on the back foot, the latter will have to be the one to make the next move in terms of drawing the conflict to a close. The fanaticism with which the Ukrainian political sphere views its struggle against the Russians paired with what would be an assuredly ‘loose-loose’ fate for the existing leadership will keep them fighting until a bitter end, while Russia can afford to bite the proverbial (and literal) bullet for now.
As you yourself say ‘Russians can afford to take the beating’ — but unlike a typical boxing match, one of the belligerents (the Russians) are only increasing their drone capabilities. As Mearshimer or some other realist said about a year ago, ‘you can’t win against someone you can’t say no to’. Especially in light of the disastrous inconsistency with which the United States has approached trade, Iran negotiations, Russian negotiations, et al over the past four months, my suspicion is that Russia won’t bat an eye until some combination of demoralization and disaffection within Ukraine results in capitulates to entertaining the idea of conceding occupied land.
As an aside, your point about veterans issues is very well put. Curiously enough from an American perspective, the most interesting episode of the war thus far was the Pregozhin revolt — Russians against Russians! In light of the kinetic war between ‘east and west’ which started the division between Russia and European powers, it would be unsurprising if bitterly ironic should things end in the same general way…
Yet another thought-provoking article from Alexander. You touched on what will surely become one of the most important and long-lasting impacts of this war, namely Ukraine’s demographic challenges. History tells us that “demographics are destiny” - a pessimistic prospect for both Ukraine’s ability to hold off Russian advances, and the possibility of a successful post-war rebuilding of social and economic institutions and structures. A very important factor to consider.